Thursday morning, the news hit the wire: Albert Pujols was leaving St. Louis and signing with the LA Angels. While I am not a Cardinals fan, I am a baseball fan, and this was the biggest story of the off-season and the best player to hit the free agent market since Alex Rodriguez in 2001. Having recently moved to St. Louis, the local newspapers, radio, tv, and co-workers have discussed the pros and cons of signing Pujols. Some said the Cards needed to sign him at all costs. Some said only if the price was right. And others were more than happy to move on without him. I'll try and put a spin on "El Hombre's" decision and outline how it affects each party involved.
Angels The Angels got the big bat they needed to go with a star-studded rotation and talented, but aging, line-up. They missed out on Carl Crawford and Mark Teixera in past years, but weren't going to lose out on the biggest fish this year. Did they overpay? Probably, but if that's what it cost to have Albert trade in the Birds on the Bat for a Halo, Moreno shouldn't be second guessing himself. The Angels immediately become the favorite in the AL West, especially after stealing CJ Wilson from the division rival Rangers. Cardinal fans know what Albert brought to the city in St. Louis, and he will do something similar in LA. In addition, Pujols is tied to the organization for 10 years after the contract is of. Don't think the Angels won't milk every ounce out of Albert to bring in free agents and make public appearances to recover at least part of the $254 million they'll pay him through 2021.
PujolsA majority of Cardinal fans, and baseball fans were shocked that Pujols actually left St. Louis. Most thought his plan was to get the Marlins and Angels to submit offers to drive of the offer from the Cardinals front office. If all the stories you hear are true, Pujols had lots of reasons to accept the Angels offer. 10 years $254 million was at least 1 year and $30 million more than he was offered in St. Louis this week. This was 5 years and $134 million more than he was offered earlier this fall as well. Number two, he can take some wear and tear off his body by playing some DH. Sure he will always be remembered in St. Louis as the guy who won 2 world series, 3 MVP's, and only finished outside the top 5 in MVP voting once in 11 years, but LA presents a new challenge, a bigger market, and warmer weather in the off-season. Albert always talked about loyalty, but it's apparent that wasn't what is was all about. And I quote Dwight Schrute from the office:
"Would I ever leave this company? Look, I'm all about loyalty. In fact, I feel like part of what I'm being paid for here is my loyalty. But if there were somewhere else that valued loyalty more highly, I'm going wherever they value loyalty the most."
Well spoken Mr. Schrute.
Cardinals The cardinals are in a decent position even after losing Pujols. Allen Craig should slide into right field in May or June following off-season surgery. Berkman will move to first. Another option would be to call up the Angels and see if Mark Trumbo is available. It would be a hard pill to swallow, but Trumbo can hit and the Angels have a backlog of first baseman after Kendrys Morales returns in 2012. The red birds will get Adam Wainright back, hopefully a full season of World Series MVP David Freese, and given the have about $20 million left in the budget for the forseeable future, they should have an opportunity to sign a big bat this season (Beltran, Cuddyer) or next season (Quentin, Ethier, Hamilton).
All that being said, there are some odd facts in the Pujols decision. While Southern California is warm, it is also VERY expensive. Assuming the Cardinals best offer was $21 million per year, Pujols would have to get at least $31 million to account for the cost-of-living difference between LA and St. Louis. Pujols signed for $26 million per year. Even a non-business person can tell you that Albert is potentially earning LESS money in Cali than in Cardinal nation. This is without factoring in the additional taxes he'll be paying in Schwarzenegger-Ville.
The second, last, and most alarming point is Pujols' decrease in production in the last few years. From age 23-29, Pujols had a WAR (Wins above replacement) between 8 and 10 every year. (For reference, WAR measures the numbers of wins a player adds to his team compared to an average replacement player). This was the best in baseball over that stretch. In 2010, his WAR was 7.5. In 2011, his WAR was 5.5. According to Dan Szymborsk from ESPN, here is King ALbert's projected WAR through 2021:
2012: 6.6
2013: 5.7
2014: 5.1
2015: 4.3
2016: 3.5 (For reference, Nick Hundley added 3.4 wins for the Padres last season)
2017: 2.8
2018: 2.1
2019: 1.4
2020: .7
2021: .2
As you can see it goes down pretty fast after the first 5 seasons. Could the Angels win 5 rings? Not likely, but if Pujols even wins one in LA, no one will worry about the money. There are lots of discussions on if Pujols is actually 32, and we may never know. The Angels paid what they had to in order to get the Hall-of-Famer and the Cardinals couldn't match it.
Can you imagine a scenario in which the Angels and Cardinals face-off in the World Series in the next few years? I can, and what a spectacle that would be.
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