Based off of Illinois' performance yesterday (I was thankful that I only watched the first 16 minutes of the game), I don't think anyone can argue that Bruce Weber should keep his job. The ONLY reason that he may stay on another year is the fact that he's owed a $3.9 million buyout if new AD Mike Thomas gives Bruce a pink slip. Assuming Thomas will cut Weber loose, here's a list of 5 candidates that Thomas should consider:
1) Brad Stevens (Butler) - His resume should speak for himself: 2 consecutive championship game appearances (losing to Duke and UCONN). Stevens spurned offers from programs the last few years, only to sign a sign a 10-year, $10 million deal in 2010. He has struggled a bit this year (17-12) but he has proven that he is a COACH, who knows how to get the best out of his players. He's been able to recruit decent prospects to Indy, so he has familiar roots to the MidWest area. He's the #1 choice.
2) Scott Drew (Baylor) - After coaching one year at Valparaiso, Drew started at Baylor in 2003 and finished that year with a 8-21 record. So far during the current season, he is 22-5. He's failed to win the big game this season, but he has proved he can develop players and recruit the top prospects, including Qunicy Miller from Chicago and and 2 top 25 national recruits for next season. He may not see Champaign as enough of a step up to leave, but Thomas needs to ask.
3) Gregg Marshall (Wichita State) - Marshall has never coached at a BCS school, but his track record is quite impressive. He coached at Winthrop for 10 years, finishing first or second in the conference nine of those items. He jumped ship to Wichita State in 2007 and has finished first or second in the Missouri Valley Conference. He hasn't established himself as a great recruiter, but he's proved that he can develop players and moving into a BCS job should attract the top talent
4) Buzz Williams (Marquette) - Less than two hours north of Chicago, Buzz Williams has been successful taking over for Tom Crean. Would Williams leave a disintegrating Big East for the stability of a Big Ten job? I would think so. Illinois is a basketball school and has a rich tradition. Thomas would have to pay up, but considering he's let Zook and (hopefully) Weber go, and continually preaches the need to compete to Big 10 Titles, there's no doubt he'd open up the check book.
5) Fred Hoiberg (Iowa State) - Common sense would tell you that Hoiberg isn't ready for a big time program, having only coached for two year at Iowa State since retiring from the NBA. However, he is one of the smartest basketball minds ever to play in the NBA. He knew the fundamentals and has the ability to coach them. He's toppled some giants so far this year, and with 4-star recruit Georges Niang coming in next year, his stock will only get higher.
Wildcard) Billy Donovan (Florida) - The only way I imagine Donovan leaving Florida is throwing a butt-load of money at him and convincing him that he will always be second-fiddle in the football-centric SEC. It may cost $3-4 million a year, but you should never say never...
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Bruce Weber: Dead Coach Walking
I have supported Bruce Weber for the most part throughout the last few years when his teams have time and time again underachieved. Weber took over one of the most talented teams when Bill Self, and brought the Fighting Illini to the 2005 National Title Game. Bruce went 37-2 that season, tied for the most wins of any team in NCAA history. He won the Big Ten Title his first two years and went 28-4 in conference play. (Remember, this is with Bill Self's recruits including Deron, Luther, Dee, James, and Roger.)
Starting with the 2005-2006 season, Bruce has gone 60-56 in conference and has not won a share of the Big Ten Title in any season. He has two second place finishes (2006-2009) but has not advanced past the second round of the NCAA tournament since making the national title game. Illinois has missed the tournament completely 2 of the last 4 years, and are heading that direction this year.
Speaking of this year, the team has vastly underperformed. They won the first 10 games of the season, including wins over Maryland and Gonzaga. After losing to UNLV and Mizzou, they started the conference 4-1, including a win over then #5 OSU. Since then, Weber's team has lost 7 of 8, with the only win being an ugly victory of Michigan State.
Illinois has been in pretty much ever game. The reason why I think Bruce should be fired due to lack of execution, last of respect from his players, and the inability to develop young players.
Exhibit A was again Purdue last week. Meyers Leonard, thought to be drafted as high as #5 in next year's draft, had 2 points and attempted four shots in the first half. He was guarded by Robbie Hummel, who listed at 6'8" is a good five inches shorter than Leonard. When you have a big guy as good as Leonard, he should be touching the ball, EVERY POSSESSION. Sure, Leonard has poor body language, but I'd be pissed off too if my coaches weren't drawing up plays to get me the ball and my teammates were giving it to me.
I put most of the blame on Bruce for not making Leonard the center point of the game plan. Illinois may not get another player liked Leonard for another 30 years. The real mistake was not playing Leonard last year instead of string bean Mike Tisdale, but that's a whole nother story.
Secondly, the players don't respect Bruce. During the same Purdue game, Bruce drew up a play that would have gotten D.J. Richardson an open three at the end of the game. Instead, Brandon Paul in bounded the ball, got it back, and took a double-clutched, off-balanced, leaner of the three pointer that was lucky to draw a piece of the backboard. Leonard frequently pouts on the court. Do you know why he keeps doing that? Because Bruce won't do a damn thing about. He lets his best players get away with crap like that because he's too worried about winning every game instead of sending a message. He's coaching scared and because of that he's already lost this team.
Lastly, Bruce and his staff are horrible at developing players. McCamey, Davis and Tisdale took the league by storm during their sophomore year when the team went 24-10. Instead of continuing to develop those players, the trio took massive step backs during the next two seasons and one NCAA tournament appearance.
It took three years to get anything out of Brandon Paul, but he is still a turnover machine. D.J. Richardson is as streaky a shooter as there is (5 made 3's vs Michigan, 1 in his next two games) Leonard sat on the bench his entire freshman year, only playing double-digit minutes three times in Big Ten Play.
The last point is that Bruce's players get complacent with previous victories. Defeat #5 Ohio State? Lose the next three games. Beat #10 Michigan State? lose the next four games. He doesn't keep his teams motivated and that is a huge thing with 20-year old kids.
Based on all of this, Bruce will be fired during the off-season. A .500 record in Big 10 play doesn't cut it for a program that should CONSISTENTLY be top 15 in the country. The only legitimate state school with Chicago less than three hours should be getting the best ballers in the country every year. You want to see a sad list of players who have left Chicago for other programs? It's sick:
Shannon Brown
Shaun Livingston
Julian Wright
Bobby Frasor
Sherron Collins
Jon Scheyer
Derrick Rose
Eric Gordon (that's a whole nother issue too)
Anthony Davis
Wayne Blackshear
Ryan Boatright
Now, Jabari Parker plays his high school ball at Simeon in Chicago. He's the #2 prospect for the 2013 class. Illinois is in his top 5. There's NO REASON why these top recruits should be leaving the state. Bruce's staff should be bringing in these kids. Until they do that, or the next coach does, Illinois won't be anything more than a bubble team.
I love Illinois. The 04-05 season was one of the best runs I've ever seen a team go on. I'll always love Bruce because of it, but it's time to move on. He will catch on at another BCS school and do fine things for them, but Illinois has higher expectation for its team, and it's coach.
Starting with the 2005-2006 season, Bruce has gone 60-56 in conference and has not won a share of the Big Ten Title in any season. He has two second place finishes (2006-2009) but has not advanced past the second round of the NCAA tournament since making the national title game. Illinois has missed the tournament completely 2 of the last 4 years, and are heading that direction this year.
Speaking of this year, the team has vastly underperformed. They won the first 10 games of the season, including wins over Maryland and Gonzaga. After losing to UNLV and Mizzou, they started the conference 4-1, including a win over then #5 OSU. Since then, Weber's team has lost 7 of 8, with the only win being an ugly victory of Michigan State.
Illinois has been in pretty much ever game. The reason why I think Bruce should be fired due to lack of execution, last of respect from his players, and the inability to develop young players.
Exhibit A was again Purdue last week. Meyers Leonard, thought to be drafted as high as #5 in next year's draft, had 2 points and attempted four shots in the first half. He was guarded by Robbie Hummel, who listed at 6'8" is a good five inches shorter than Leonard. When you have a big guy as good as Leonard, he should be touching the ball, EVERY POSSESSION. Sure, Leonard has poor body language, but I'd be pissed off too if my coaches weren't drawing up plays to get me the ball and my teammates were giving it to me.
I put most of the blame on Bruce for not making Leonard the center point of the game plan. Illinois may not get another player liked Leonard for another 30 years. The real mistake was not playing Leonard last year instead of string bean Mike Tisdale, but that's a whole nother story.
Secondly, the players don't respect Bruce. During the same Purdue game, Bruce drew up a play that would have gotten D.J. Richardson an open three at the end of the game. Instead, Brandon Paul in bounded the ball, got it back, and took a double-clutched, off-balanced, leaner of the three pointer that was lucky to draw a piece of the backboard. Leonard frequently pouts on the court. Do you know why he keeps doing that? Because Bruce won't do a damn thing about. He lets his best players get away with crap like that because he's too worried about winning every game instead of sending a message. He's coaching scared and because of that he's already lost this team.
Lastly, Bruce and his staff are horrible at developing players. McCamey, Davis and Tisdale took the league by storm during their sophomore year when the team went 24-10. Instead of continuing to develop those players, the trio took massive step backs during the next two seasons and one NCAA tournament appearance.
It took three years to get anything out of Brandon Paul, but he is still a turnover machine. D.J. Richardson is as streaky a shooter as there is (5 made 3's vs Michigan, 1 in his next two games) Leonard sat on the bench his entire freshman year, only playing double-digit minutes three times in Big Ten Play.
The last point is that Bruce's players get complacent with previous victories. Defeat #5 Ohio State? Lose the next three games. Beat #10 Michigan State? lose the next four games. He doesn't keep his teams motivated and that is a huge thing with 20-year old kids.
Based on all of this, Bruce will be fired during the off-season. A .500 record in Big 10 play doesn't cut it for a program that should CONSISTENTLY be top 15 in the country. The only legitimate state school with Chicago less than three hours should be getting the best ballers in the country every year. You want to see a sad list of players who have left Chicago for other programs? It's sick:
Shannon Brown
Shaun Livingston
Julian Wright
Bobby Frasor
Sherron Collins
Jon Scheyer
Derrick Rose
Eric Gordon (that's a whole nother issue too)
Anthony Davis
Wayne Blackshear
Ryan Boatright
Now, Jabari Parker plays his high school ball at Simeon in Chicago. He's the #2 prospect for the 2013 class. Illinois is in his top 5. There's NO REASON why these top recruits should be leaving the state. Bruce's staff should be bringing in these kids. Until they do that, or the next coach does, Illinois won't be anything more than a bubble team.
I love Illinois. The 04-05 season was one of the best runs I've ever seen a team go on. I'll always love Bruce because of it, but it's time to move on. He will catch on at another BCS school and do fine things for them, but Illinois has higher expectation for its team, and it's coach.
Monday, January 16, 2012
A College Football Playoff is on the Horizon
Last week during the BCS title game, there were reports that the NCAA President and the heads of all the major conferences were meeting to discuss changes to the BCS system. This is a large change from even 2-3 years when some conference presidents did not even want to discuss the matter.
The best methodology would be a simple "plus one" scenario. The BCS standings would still be used. I still don't understand all of the secrecy behind the formulas used to determine the final numbers, but for the most part the system has been accurate.
Imagine this past year seeing LSU face Stanford in one semi-final (preferably the first Saturday in January) and Alabama playing Oklahoma State on the same day. Nine days later, the two winners would play for the BCS National Title Game on Monday night.
There are four BCS games now (Fiesta, Orange, Rose, and Sugar). The sponsors would alternate taking one of the semi-final games and a non-playoff bowl game. Some of the traditional bowl match-ups would be affected (i.e. Rose pitting Big 10 vs Pac 12, but in years where one of the teams is in the National Title that match-up doesn't happen)
The BCS could decide to add a fifth BCS sponsor so that 10 teams would be include in BCS bowl games, as in years past. Additionally, the teams ranked 5th and 6th would be guaranteed a slot in the BCS Bowl games, regardless of their conference (so Arkansas this year would not be penalized for playing in a conference that featured the #1 and #2 teams in the country)
There would be no automatic bowl qualifiers from BCS Conferences. No one wanted to see Clemson in a BCS game this season. Arkansas or K-State would have been a better choice.
The regular season would not be damaged because only the top 4 teams would be slotted into the playoffs. And it may be just my opinion, but if I were the BCS, I'd much prefer to have controversy over the #4 and #5 seeds than the #2 and #3 in the BCS (i.e. I'd rather there be controversy over the #4 seed than determining the #2 seed)
It makes too much sense not to have a playoff system in college football. Now more than ever.
The best methodology would be a simple "plus one" scenario. The BCS standings would still be used. I still don't understand all of the secrecy behind the formulas used to determine the final numbers, but for the most part the system has been accurate.
Imagine this past year seeing LSU face Stanford in one semi-final (preferably the first Saturday in January) and Alabama playing Oklahoma State on the same day. Nine days later, the two winners would play for the BCS National Title Game on Monday night.
There are four BCS games now (Fiesta, Orange, Rose, and Sugar). The sponsors would alternate taking one of the semi-final games and a non-playoff bowl game. Some of the traditional bowl match-ups would be affected (i.e. Rose pitting Big 10 vs Pac 12, but in years where one of the teams is in the National Title that match-up doesn't happen)
The BCS could decide to add a fifth BCS sponsor so that 10 teams would be include in BCS bowl games, as in years past. Additionally, the teams ranked 5th and 6th would be guaranteed a slot in the BCS Bowl games, regardless of their conference (so Arkansas this year would not be penalized for playing in a conference that featured the #1 and #2 teams in the country)
There would be no automatic bowl qualifiers from BCS Conferences. No one wanted to see Clemson in a BCS game this season. Arkansas or K-State would have been a better choice.
The regular season would not be damaged because only the top 4 teams would be slotted into the playoffs. And it may be just my opinion, but if I were the BCS, I'd much prefer to have controversy over the #4 and #5 seeds than the #2 and #3 in the BCS (i.e. I'd rather there be controversy over the #4 seed than determining the #2 seed)
It makes too much sense not to have a playoff system in college football. Now more than ever.
Friday, December 23, 2011
Chicago Teams Christmas Lists
During the holiday season, I thought I'd write a quick blog about the four major sports teams in Chicago (except for the Cubs, you must have won a title in the last 100 years to be considered a "professional team") and what each team should "give" (trade, cut) and one player each should "receive" (sign, acquire) Making these moves will ensure a joyful year ahead.
White Sox--> 24 hours ago I would have said signing John Danks was the highest priority. Given that Kenny got this done today, the Sox need some help in the outfield and third base. The Braves just happen to have soured on Martin Prado. The guy hits for average, can play multiple positions and is still only 28 years old. Get it done Kenny. As for the guy who I'd give away, Carlos Quentin. The guy has a world of talent, but it constantly hurt and is way to inconsistent to be counted on in the middle of the line-up. Trade him while he still has some value Kenny.
Bulls--> Pax and Forman signed D-Rose to a 5 year extension yesterday which was HUGE for ensuring success in Chicago. Next step should be to trade for O.J. Mayo. Even after signing Rip Hamilton, Rose still needs a secondary scoring option. Mayo, 24 years old, has the ability to create his own shot and would fit in great at the 2/3 spot in the bulls line-up. Kyle Korver needs to go. He never plays defense and he has a decent game once every four games. Send him on his way.
Bears--> This should be obvious...SIGN A DECENT BACK-UP QUARTERBACK!!!! Shaun Hill is an experienced QB and has played in a number of different systems. He's a consistent QB who won't curl up like a baby (Hanie) when he's inserted into the line-up. Hill is a free agent at the end of the year. Get it done. For the Christmas season, Angelo needs to send Roy Williams packing. I can't even count the number of times he's juggled a ball or flat out dropped it. He's worthless and should have been cut after week 3 (Bonus pick-up...sign Brandon Lloyd. Great route runner and has a history with Jay from Denver)
Blackhawks--> Overall the Hawks have been playing great all season long. One good addition would be Bobby Ryan from Anaheim. He could add some additional scoring and power play support on the two top lines for the Hawks. The Ducks have fallen out of the race and Ryan out of favor. As much as it kills me, Dave Bolland has been a disappointment this season. Marcus Kruger has been playing really well at Center and Bolland has gradually lost playing. Trade him why he still has some value and see if you can get a 3rd line defense man in return.
White Sox--> 24 hours ago I would have said signing John Danks was the highest priority. Given that Kenny got this done today, the Sox need some help in the outfield and third base. The Braves just happen to have soured on Martin Prado. The guy hits for average, can play multiple positions and is still only 28 years old. Get it done Kenny. As for the guy who I'd give away, Carlos Quentin. The guy has a world of talent, but it constantly hurt and is way to inconsistent to be counted on in the middle of the line-up. Trade him while he still has some value Kenny.
Bulls--> Pax and Forman signed D-Rose to a 5 year extension yesterday which was HUGE for ensuring success in Chicago. Next step should be to trade for O.J. Mayo. Even after signing Rip Hamilton, Rose still needs a secondary scoring option. Mayo, 24 years old, has the ability to create his own shot and would fit in great at the 2/3 spot in the bulls line-up. Kyle Korver needs to go. He never plays defense and he has a decent game once every four games. Send him on his way.
Bears--> This should be obvious...SIGN A DECENT BACK-UP QUARTERBACK!!!! Shaun Hill is an experienced QB and has played in a number of different systems. He's a consistent QB who won't curl up like a baby (Hanie) when he's inserted into the line-up. Hill is a free agent at the end of the year. Get it done. For the Christmas season, Angelo needs to send Roy Williams packing. I can't even count the number of times he's juggled a ball or flat out dropped it. He's worthless and should have been cut after week 3 (Bonus pick-up...sign Brandon Lloyd. Great route runner and has a history with Jay from Denver)
Blackhawks--> Overall the Hawks have been playing great all season long. One good addition would be Bobby Ryan from Anaheim. He could add some additional scoring and power play support on the two top lines for the Hawks. The Ducks have fallen out of the race and Ryan out of favor. As much as it kills me, Dave Bolland has been a disappointment this season. Marcus Kruger has been playing really well at Center and Bolland has gradually lost playing. Trade him why he still has some value and see if you can get a 3rd line defense man in return.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Why Tebow is (Still) Overrated
Tim Tebow. Odds are you've heard of him. Heck, if you haven't heard of him you've probably been on the moon or been undercover for the last two months. His fathead ranks as the #1, #3, and #10 best sellers this year. He has a whole website dedicated to his "touchdown prayer" . Saturday Night Live did a rather hilarious skit His team has gone 7-1 (before today) since Tebow took over for Kyle Orton. Tebow has always been a winner at every level. At Florida, he won the Heisman as a sophomore, national title as a junior, and went 13-1 as a senior, including a Sugar Bowl victory over Cincinnati.
After all of these accolades, wins, awards, and records, there were two very distinct sides in regards to the fans of Tim Tebow: You either loved him or hated him. Similar to the New York Yankees, Dallas Cowboys, or A.J. Pierzynski. He was a very, very good college player. The offense Urban Meyer ran for him suited his talent. He was never a good passer. He threw for only 21 touchdowns his senior season and during his first three years at Florida, he was only a 65% passer. Most people thought that his skills couldn't translate to the NFL (see Eric Crouch, Vince Young, and Pat White).
I'm not questioning Tebow's running ability. I think he could be fullback similar to Mike Alstoff or a beefy running back a la Mike Tolbert. A rare blend of size and speed. But a quarterback? I think not. Going into the 2010 NFL Draft there was a disagreement even amongst "experts"
Tony Dungy said that he would take Tebow in the top 10 of the draft and the first quarterback taken (Sam Bradford went #1 that year)
Mel Kiper said that he couldn't be a full time quarterback and projected him as as second/third round pick
Denver took him 26th overall and Tebow saw limited playing time, going 1-2 as a starter. Kyle Orton was the starter opening the 2011 season but was benched at half time during week 5 with Tebow coming in to relieve him. The rest, they say, is history: Down 15 with less than 5 minutes to go against Miami, only to come back and win in overtime. A fourth-quarter drive against the Chargers to win on Thursday Night Football. He followed that up with 2 straight come-from-behind wins against the Vikings and Bears. Following the game against Chicago, Denver was 7-5 and sitting atop the AFC West.
After considering all this, I've come up with one realization. Tebow is a BAD quarterback and all of this LUCK will catch up to him. Similar to a rookie baseball player who mashes the stuffing out of the ball for the first week he's in the bigs, only to be never heard from again after the opposition figures out the hole in their swing.
On the season, Tebow is a 48.5% passer. 48.5%!!!! That is by far the worst in the NFL this season. The NFL is a passing league and you've got to put some fear in the opposition that you can actually beat them down the field. In week 7 against Kansas City, Tebow went 2-8 for 69 yards. That's only the fifth time in the last 31 years that a QB has thrown 2 or fewer passes and won the game. In week 14 against the Bears, Tebow did not complete a pass in the second and third quarters. In all but two games this season, Tebow completed fewer than 14 passes.
Like I said before, Tebow is a great runner, but he's not a quarterback. Over the long haul, he can't sustain his putrid play through 3 quarters only to pull a rabbit out of his hat at the end of the game. He has an awkward, slow, delivery. Tebow's only thrown two interceptions this season, but that's only because some of his passes are so horrible that there's not even a defender anywhere nearby.
Remeber Vince Young? He took the league by storm with his combination of running and throwing in Tennesee after dominating at Texas. Where is he now? Backing up Mike Vick in Philadelphia. Vick, on the other hand, is the sole exception to the rule. He is a freak of an athlete and he has a rocket for an arm. Tebow is built like a linebacker, but plays a quarterback on the field.
America loves Tebow. America loves a good story, especially about someone who is as likable as Tebow. Every sentence includes at least one reference to Jesus or God. With some of the wins that Tebow has pulled out, it makes you wonder if there is some higher power at work. Eventually people will look past all the window dressing and see what I've seen ever since his sophomore year at Florida:
Tebow's act will be fun for a year, but by this time next season, he will be either on the bench or fans in Denver will be calling for Brady Quinn because opponents will figure out a game plan that will stop Tebow in his tracks. Similar to the wildcat in Miami. Enjoy this ride while it lasts Tebow fans, the end is in sight.
After all of these accolades, wins, awards, and records, there were two very distinct sides in regards to the fans of Tim Tebow: You either loved him or hated him. Similar to the New York Yankees, Dallas Cowboys, or A.J. Pierzynski. He was a very, very good college player. The offense Urban Meyer ran for him suited his talent. He was never a good passer. He threw for only 21 touchdowns his senior season and during his first three years at Florida, he was only a 65% passer. Most people thought that his skills couldn't translate to the NFL (see Eric Crouch, Vince Young, and Pat White).
I'm not questioning Tebow's running ability. I think he could be fullback similar to Mike Alstoff or a beefy running back a la Mike Tolbert. A rare blend of size and speed. But a quarterback? I think not. Going into the 2010 NFL Draft there was a disagreement even amongst "experts"
Tony Dungy said that he would take Tebow in the top 10 of the draft and the first quarterback taken (Sam Bradford went #1 that year)
Mel Kiper said that he couldn't be a full time quarterback and projected him as as second/third round pick
Denver took him 26th overall and Tebow saw limited playing time, going 1-2 as a starter. Kyle Orton was the starter opening the 2011 season but was benched at half time during week 5 with Tebow coming in to relieve him. The rest, they say, is history: Down 15 with less than 5 minutes to go against Miami, only to come back and win in overtime. A fourth-quarter drive against the Chargers to win on Thursday Night Football. He followed that up with 2 straight come-from-behind wins against the Vikings and Bears. Following the game against Chicago, Denver was 7-5 and sitting atop the AFC West.
After considering all this, I've come up with one realization. Tebow is a BAD quarterback and all of this LUCK will catch up to him. Similar to a rookie baseball player who mashes the stuffing out of the ball for the first week he's in the bigs, only to be never heard from again after the opposition figures out the hole in their swing.
On the season, Tebow is a 48.5% passer. 48.5%!!!! That is by far the worst in the NFL this season. The NFL is a passing league and you've got to put some fear in the opposition that you can actually beat them down the field. In week 7 against Kansas City, Tebow went 2-8 for 69 yards. That's only the fifth time in the last 31 years that a QB has thrown 2 or fewer passes and won the game. In week 14 against the Bears, Tebow did not complete a pass in the second and third quarters. In all but two games this season, Tebow completed fewer than 14 passes.
Like I said before, Tebow is a great runner, but he's not a quarterback. Over the long haul, he can't sustain his putrid play through 3 quarters only to pull a rabbit out of his hat at the end of the game. He has an awkward, slow, delivery. Tebow's only thrown two interceptions this season, but that's only because some of his passes are so horrible that there's not even a defender anywhere nearby.
Remeber Vince Young? He took the league by storm with his combination of running and throwing in Tennesee after dominating at Texas. Where is he now? Backing up Mike Vick in Philadelphia. Vick, on the other hand, is the sole exception to the rule. He is a freak of an athlete and he has a rocket for an arm. Tebow is built like a linebacker, but plays a quarterback on the field.
America loves Tebow. America loves a good story, especially about someone who is as likable as Tebow. Every sentence includes at least one reference to Jesus or God. With some of the wins that Tebow has pulled out, it makes you wonder if there is some higher power at work. Eventually people will look past all the window dressing and see what I've seen ever since his sophomore year at Florida:
Tebow's act will be fun for a year, but by this time next season, he will be either on the bench or fans in Denver will be calling for Brady Quinn because opponents will figure out a game plan that will stop Tebow in his tracks. Similar to the wildcat in Miami. Enjoy this ride while it lasts Tebow fans, the end is in sight.
Sunday, December 11, 2011
The Decision: Pujols Edition
Thursday morning, the news hit the wire: Albert Pujols was leaving St. Louis and signing with the LA Angels. While I am not a Cardinals fan, I am a baseball fan, and this was the biggest story of the off-season and the best player to hit the free agent market since Alex Rodriguez in 2001. Having recently moved to St. Louis, the local newspapers, radio, tv, and co-workers have discussed the pros and cons of signing Pujols. Some said the Cards needed to sign him at all costs. Some said only if the price was right. And others were more than happy to move on without him. I'll try and put a spin on "El Hombre's" decision and outline how it affects each party involved.
Angels The Angels got the big bat they needed to go with a star-studded rotation and talented, but aging, line-up. They missed out on Carl Crawford and Mark Teixera in past years, but weren't going to lose out on the biggest fish this year. Did they overpay? Probably, but if that's what it cost to have Albert trade in the Birds on the Bat for a Halo, Moreno shouldn't be second guessing himself. The Angels immediately become the favorite in the AL West, especially after stealing CJ Wilson from the division rival Rangers. Cardinal fans know what Albert brought to the city in St. Louis, and he will do something similar in LA. In addition, Pujols is tied to the organization for 10 years after the contract is of. Don't think the Angels won't milk every ounce out of Albert to bring in free agents and make public appearances to recover at least part of the $254 million they'll pay him through 2021.
PujolsA majority of Cardinal fans, and baseball fans were shocked that Pujols actually left St. Louis. Most thought his plan was to get the Marlins and Angels to submit offers to drive of the offer from the Cardinals front office. If all the stories you hear are true, Pujols had lots of reasons to accept the Angels offer. 10 years $254 million was at least 1 year and $30 million more than he was offered in St. Louis this week. This was 5 years and $134 million more than he was offered earlier this fall as well. Number two, he can take some wear and tear off his body by playing some DH. Sure he will always be remembered in St. Louis as the guy who won 2 world series, 3 MVP's, and only finished outside the top 5 in MVP voting once in 11 years, but LA presents a new challenge, a bigger market, and warmer weather in the off-season. Albert always talked about loyalty, but it's apparent that wasn't what is was all about. And I quote Dwight Schrute from the office:
"Would I ever leave this company? Look, I'm all about loyalty. In fact, I feel like part of what I'm being paid for here is my loyalty. But if there were somewhere else that valued loyalty more highly, I'm going wherever they value loyalty the most."
Well spoken Mr. Schrute.
Cardinals The cardinals are in a decent position even after losing Pujols. Allen Craig should slide into right field in May or June following off-season surgery. Berkman will move to first. Another option would be to call up the Angels and see if Mark Trumbo is available. It would be a hard pill to swallow, but Trumbo can hit and the Angels have a backlog of first baseman after Kendrys Morales returns in 2012. The red birds will get Adam Wainright back, hopefully a full season of World Series MVP David Freese, and given the have about $20 million left in the budget for the forseeable future, they should have an opportunity to sign a big bat this season (Beltran, Cuddyer) or next season (Quentin, Ethier, Hamilton).
All that being said, there are some odd facts in the Pujols decision. While Southern California is warm, it is also VERY expensive. Assuming the Cardinals best offer was $21 million per year, Pujols would have to get at least $31 million to account for the cost-of-living difference between LA and St. Louis. Pujols signed for $26 million per year. Even a non-business person can tell you that Albert is potentially earning LESS money in Cali than in Cardinal nation. This is without factoring in the additional taxes he'll be paying in Schwarzenegger-Ville.
The second, last, and most alarming point is Pujols' decrease in production in the last few years. From age 23-29, Pujols had a WAR (Wins above replacement) between 8 and 10 every year. (For reference, WAR measures the numbers of wins a player adds to his team compared to an average replacement player). This was the best in baseball over that stretch. In 2010, his WAR was 7.5. In 2011, his WAR was 5.5. According to Dan Szymborsk from ESPN, here is King ALbert's projected WAR through 2021:
2012: 6.6
2013: 5.7
2014: 5.1
2015: 4.3
2016: 3.5 (For reference, Nick Hundley added 3.4 wins for the Padres last season)
2017: 2.8
2018: 2.1
2019: 1.4
2020: .7
2021: .2
As you can see it goes down pretty fast after the first 5 seasons. Could the Angels win 5 rings? Not likely, but if Pujols even wins one in LA, no one will worry about the money. There are lots of discussions on if Pujols is actually 32, and we may never know. The Angels paid what they had to in order to get the Hall-of-Famer and the Cardinals couldn't match it.
Can you imagine a scenario in which the Angels and Cardinals face-off in the World Series in the next few years? I can, and what a spectacle that would be.
Angels The Angels got the big bat they needed to go with a star-studded rotation and talented, but aging, line-up. They missed out on Carl Crawford and Mark Teixera in past years, but weren't going to lose out on the biggest fish this year. Did they overpay? Probably, but if that's what it cost to have Albert trade in the Birds on the Bat for a Halo, Moreno shouldn't be second guessing himself. The Angels immediately become the favorite in the AL West, especially after stealing CJ Wilson from the division rival Rangers. Cardinal fans know what Albert brought to the city in St. Louis, and he will do something similar in LA. In addition, Pujols is tied to the organization for 10 years after the contract is of. Don't think the Angels won't milk every ounce out of Albert to bring in free agents and make public appearances to recover at least part of the $254 million they'll pay him through 2021.
PujolsA majority of Cardinal fans, and baseball fans were shocked that Pujols actually left St. Louis. Most thought his plan was to get the Marlins and Angels to submit offers to drive of the offer from the Cardinals front office. If all the stories you hear are true, Pujols had lots of reasons to accept the Angels offer. 10 years $254 million was at least 1 year and $30 million more than he was offered in St. Louis this week. This was 5 years and $134 million more than he was offered earlier this fall as well. Number two, he can take some wear and tear off his body by playing some DH. Sure he will always be remembered in St. Louis as the guy who won 2 world series, 3 MVP's, and only finished outside the top 5 in MVP voting once in 11 years, but LA presents a new challenge, a bigger market, and warmer weather in the off-season. Albert always talked about loyalty, but it's apparent that wasn't what is was all about. And I quote Dwight Schrute from the office:
"Would I ever leave this company? Look, I'm all about loyalty. In fact, I feel like part of what I'm being paid for here is my loyalty. But if there were somewhere else that valued loyalty more highly, I'm going wherever they value loyalty the most."
Well spoken Mr. Schrute.
Cardinals The cardinals are in a decent position even after losing Pujols. Allen Craig should slide into right field in May or June following off-season surgery. Berkman will move to first. Another option would be to call up the Angels and see if Mark Trumbo is available. It would be a hard pill to swallow, but Trumbo can hit and the Angels have a backlog of first baseman after Kendrys Morales returns in 2012. The red birds will get Adam Wainright back, hopefully a full season of World Series MVP David Freese, and given the have about $20 million left in the budget for the forseeable future, they should have an opportunity to sign a big bat this season (Beltran, Cuddyer) or next season (Quentin, Ethier, Hamilton).
All that being said, there are some odd facts in the Pujols decision. While Southern California is warm, it is also VERY expensive. Assuming the Cardinals best offer was $21 million per year, Pujols would have to get at least $31 million to account for the cost-of-living difference between LA and St. Louis. Pujols signed for $26 million per year. Even a non-business person can tell you that Albert is potentially earning LESS money in Cali than in Cardinal nation. This is without factoring in the additional taxes he'll be paying in Schwarzenegger-Ville.
The second, last, and most alarming point is Pujols' decrease in production in the last few years. From age 23-29, Pujols had a WAR (Wins above replacement) between 8 and 10 every year. (For reference, WAR measures the numbers of wins a player adds to his team compared to an average replacement player). This was the best in baseball over that stretch. In 2010, his WAR was 7.5. In 2011, his WAR was 5.5. According to Dan Szymborsk from ESPN, here is King ALbert's projected WAR through 2021:
2012: 6.6
2013: 5.7
2014: 5.1
2015: 4.3
2016: 3.5 (For reference, Nick Hundley added 3.4 wins for the Padres last season)
2017: 2.8
2018: 2.1
2019: 1.4
2020: .7
2021: .2
As you can see it goes down pretty fast after the first 5 seasons. Could the Angels win 5 rings? Not likely, but if Pujols even wins one in LA, no one will worry about the money. There are lots of discussions on if Pujols is actually 32, and we may never know. The Angels paid what they had to in order to get the Hall-of-Famer and the Cardinals couldn't match it.
Can you imagine a scenario in which the Angels and Cardinals face-off in the World Series in the next few years? I can, and what a spectacle that would be.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Why Matt Forte won't play again this season...even if he's physically able to
Chicago Bear nation all held their collective breathe around 12:30 on Sunday afternoon when Matt Forte took the ball from Caleb Hanie around the left end and was hit awkwardly on his knee by a Kansas City defender. Forte immediately clutched his knee and Bears fans feared the worst...a torn ACL. He walked off the field under his own power but was ruled out for the game shortly afterwards. Rumors swirled that Forte had indeed torn knee ligaments but that night news came out that the Bears franchise running back had just sprained his MCL and should be back in 2-4 weeks in time to hopefully save the Bears playoff aspirations. He may be physically able to play as soon as week 15, but I highly doubt we will see him again before the 2012 season...even if he is able to play.
History has proven time and time again that running backs have an extremely short life in the NFL. The most recent estimate is 2.6 years. Once a player is drafted, they play under a rookie contract for four years before being a restricted free agent. Forte is on the fourth and last year of his rookie deal and has been wanting, and deservedly so, a contract extension. Over the first 3.5 years of his career, he has averaged 1,500 yards from scrimmage 9 total touchdowns. Pretty good numbers right? His base salary over that time frame totaled $3.78 million. Meanwhile, the Bears paid Chester Taylor $7 million in 2010 for 267 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
Many players have held out (Chris Johnson) and have gotten paid the big bucks ($30 million) and then put up a goose egg for most of the year. Others have played and acted like a disinterested baby (DeSean Jackson) and have turned his own team against him. Matt Forte knew his importance to the Bears offense and overall success of the team (46% of his teams offensive yards run through him). He didn't cry or whine and just went out and put his career and well-being out on the line for the sake of the team assuming the Bears would give him the extension he deserved.
The Bears haven't and Forte nearly had a career ending injury on a simple draw play. Fans give players a hard time for looking out for themselves, but football players, especially running backs, have to look out for #1. If I'm Matt Forte, I don't play until my knee is 110% healthy to ensure I don't put my career at unnecessary risk. Bears fans don't want to hear this but I can definitely see Forte's perspective. Say he comes back week 17, gets hit the wrong way on a not completely knee and his career ends at age 25 with slightly less than $4 million in the bank.
Come the off-season, Forte will either get the franchise tag, good for about $10 million, an extension, in the $20 million range, or get traded to him a team who will give him that extension. Forte went out on risk for the Bears, and now it's time to look out for the most important person in his life. Himself.
History has proven time and time again that running backs have an extremely short life in the NFL. The most recent estimate is 2.6 years. Once a player is drafted, they play under a rookie contract for four years before being a restricted free agent. Forte is on the fourth and last year of his rookie deal and has been wanting, and deservedly so, a contract extension. Over the first 3.5 years of his career, he has averaged 1,500 yards from scrimmage 9 total touchdowns. Pretty good numbers right? His base salary over that time frame totaled $3.78 million. Meanwhile, the Bears paid Chester Taylor $7 million in 2010 for 267 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
Many players have held out (Chris Johnson) and have gotten paid the big bucks ($30 million) and then put up a goose egg for most of the year. Others have played and acted like a disinterested baby (DeSean Jackson) and have turned his own team against him. Matt Forte knew his importance to the Bears offense and overall success of the team (46% of his teams offensive yards run through him). He didn't cry or whine and just went out and put his career and well-being out on the line for the sake of the team assuming the Bears would give him the extension he deserved.
The Bears haven't and Forte nearly had a career ending injury on a simple draw play. Fans give players a hard time for looking out for themselves, but football players, especially running backs, have to look out for #1. If I'm Matt Forte, I don't play until my knee is 110% healthy to ensure I don't put my career at unnecessary risk. Bears fans don't want to hear this but I can definitely see Forte's perspective. Say he comes back week 17, gets hit the wrong way on a not completely knee and his career ends at age 25 with slightly less than $4 million in the bank.
Come the off-season, Forte will either get the franchise tag, good for about $10 million, an extension, in the $20 million range, or get traded to him a team who will give him that extension. Forte went out on risk for the Bears, and now it's time to look out for the most important person in his life. Himself.
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